Preseason Rankings
Colonial Athletic
2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
123 College of Charleston 27.5%   14   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 10 13 - 5 +3.0      +2.3 106 +0.6 140 64.2 301 0.0 1 0.0 1
130 Northeastern 21.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 10 12 - 6 +1.8      +1.9 118 0.0 162 65.9 260 0.0 1 0.0 1
148 Hofstra 18.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 11 - 7 +0.9      +4.1 72 -3.2 267 68.1 196 0.0 1 0.0 1
181 Towson 10.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 14 10 - 8 -1.6      -0.1 182 -1.5 210 60.9 338 0.0 1 0.0 1
232 James Madison 5.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 8 - 10 -3.9      -1.6 225 -2.3 240 63.9 307 0.0 1 0.0 1
240 Delaware 4.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 17 8 - 10 -4.4      -1.2 214 -3.3 268 60.8 341 0.0 1 0.0 1
246 William & Mary 4.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 18 8 - 10 -4.7      -0.4 194 -4.3 296 70.8 124 0.0 1 0.0 1
254 Drexel 3.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 8 - 10 -5.2      -0.7 204 -4.5 302 72.1 93 0.0 1 0.0 1
268 UNC Wilmington 3.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 18 7 - 11 -5.9      +0.5 156 -6.4 341 72.5 83 0.0 1 0.0 1
317 Elon 0.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 21 5 - 13 -9.7      -4.6 304 -5.1 314 70.0 143 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
College of Charleston 2.7 36.2 21.6 14.6 9.8 6.4 4.9 3.0 2.1 1.0 0.4
Northeastern 3.1 28.3 21.0 15.9 11.2 8.3 6.3 4.2 2.5 1.7 0.7
Hofstra 3.5 22.7 18.9 16.0 11.9 10.5 7.3 5.3 3.8 2.2 1.2
Towson 4.5 11.7 14.1 13.9 13.7 12.2 10.5 9.0 6.9 5.0 3.0
James Madison 5.6 6.1 8.2 10.2 11.8 11.6 12.6 12.3 11.3 9.6 6.3
Delaware 5.9 4.6 7.0 9.4 11.2 11.9 12.7 12.8 12.4 10.5 7.4
William & Mary 6.0 4.2 6.9 8.8 10.6 12.0 12.6 12.6 12.8 11.5 8.1
Drexel 6.2 3.9 5.8 7.8 9.7 11.5 12.9 13.1 13.3 12.6 9.4
UNC Wilmington 6.5 2.8 4.8 6.4 9.0 10.6 12.0 13.6 14.2 14.6 12.1
Elon 8.1 0.6 1.3 2.3 3.7 5.2 7.7 10.6 14.3 20.9 33.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
College of Charleston 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.7 2.8 3.9 5.9 8.0 10.2 11.7 13.1 12.9 11.8 8.9 5.5 2.1
Northeastern 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 2.4 3.6 5.8 7.1 9.6 10.5 12.7 12.9 11.6 9.7 6.6 3.8 1.2
Hofstra 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 1.0 2.1 3.3 4.7 7.0 8.7 10.6 11.6 11.8 11.7 10.0 8.0 5.3 2.5 0.8
Towson 10 - 8 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.7 2.8 4.4 6.1 7.9 9.9 10.8 11.3 10.9 10.4 8.7 6.3 4.2 2.3 1.1 0.2
James Madison 8 - 10 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.4 5.9 7.7 9.7 10.9 11.2 11.0 10.3 8.5 7.1 5.1 3.3 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.1
Delaware 8 - 10 0.3 0.9 2.3 4.2 6.1 8.2 10.5 11.7 11.4 11.1 9.8 7.9 6.3 4.2 2.8 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.0
William & Mary 8 - 10 0.3 1.1 2.5 4.4 7.3 8.6 10.3 11.6 11.3 11.0 9.3 7.8 6.0 4.2 2.3 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
Drexel 8 - 10 0.3 1.3 3.2 5.1 7.3 9.6 11.3 11.4 11.3 10.3 9.3 7.3 5.0 3.4 2.2 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.1
UNC Wilmington 7 - 11 0.6 1.7 4.0 6.6 8.6 10.7 11.6 11.4 11.1 9.9 7.7 6.0 4.4 2.9 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Elon 5 - 13 2.8 7.2 10.7 13.0 14.1 12.7 11.2 8.8 6.9 4.9 3.2 2.1 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
College of Charleston 36.2% 26.7 7.7 1.5 0.2 0.0
Northeastern 28.3% 19.9 6.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Hofstra 22.7% 15.6 5.7 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Towson 11.7% 7.5 3.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
James Madison 6.1% 3.6 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
Delaware 4.6% 2.5 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
William & Mary 4.2% 2.3 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Drexel 3.9% 2.1 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
UNC Wilmington 2.8% 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Elon 0.6% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
College of Charleston 27.5% 26.9% 0.6% 14   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.4 4.8 7.0 6.5 4.4 1.9 72.5 0.8%
Northeastern 21.9% 21.5% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 3.0 5.1 5.8 4.3 2.1 78.1 0.4%
Hofstra 18.3% 18.0% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 2.0 4.2 4.9 4.0 2.2 81.7 0.3%
Towson 10.5% 10.4% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.3 2.5 2.7 1.7 89.5 0.1%
James Madison 5.7% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.7 1.7 94.3 0.0%
Delaware 4.8% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.7 95.2 0.0%
William & Mary 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.5 1.7 95.4 0.0%
Drexel 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.4 96.1 0.0%
UNC Wilmington 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.3 96.8 0.0%
Elon 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 99.1 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
College of Charleston 27.5% 1.0% 27.1% 4.8% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northeastern 21.9% 1.1% 21.4% 3.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hofstra 18.3% 1.2% 17.7% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Towson 10.5% 0.8% 10.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
James Madison 5.7% 0.8% 5.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Delaware 4.8% 0.9% 4.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
William & Mary 4.6% 0.9% 4.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drexel 3.9% 0.7% 3.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Wilmington 3.2% 0.8% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elon 0.9% 0.4% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 98.8 1.2 0.0
1st Round 96.4% 1.0 3.6 95.7 0.7
2nd Round 12.1% 0.1 87.9 12.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 3.1% 0.0 96.9 3.1 0.0
Elite Eight 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0